Best EBay sniping tool?

[iamchum]

eBay is about as laissez faire as a market can get. each item that is an auction is priced, and repriced every time it is sold, based on the downward pressure of buyer sentiment counteracting the upward pressure of historical prices and potential capital gains. Since when has a free market meant anything about being "fair". Fair is a word that is often bandied about without contemplation of its meaning, rather some ephemeral positive force. The reality is, in such a market as eBay, everyone is out for themselves. Collective greed at its most efficient. If we are looking at it as an economic system, "sniping" would be considered an "innovation", borne out of the need to be the "sumgai". It's very cynical, but that is essentially how eBay is evolving, a microcosm of many of the societies us, as FPN members, live in.

 

The fact is, eBay was never made to be "fair" (despite the marketing schpeel often rolled out by the company). It was made to allow sellers to supply buyer demands. So, it's quaint that some of you might subscribe to traditionalist essentialism in manual bidding, but, like manufacturing, as computerized bidding becomes more and more efficient, that sort of bidding will eventually be stamped out. Who knows? eBay might turn into a fully fledged service with a standalone front end service with a backend that integrates timed bidding, leading to more sophisticated buying and selling strategies, requiring a level of training to operate... Wait a moment... Isn't that the finance system? In which case, between 10-15 years after that, it will probably all fall apart... :ltcapd:

 

This coming from a guy who has lost the last 9 auctions I have participated in using manual bidding, and having never gotten an FP on eBay more than 10% below average market value.

 

So, getting back to the question. What is the consensus best sniping program to stop me from getting more irate at being unable to compete with 3 second remaining bids?

Edited January 2, 2013 by iamchum

[wombatoverlord]

My favorite and only sniping service is Gixen - the basic service is free, the pay service is $6 a year

Edited January 3, 2013 by wombatoverlord

[Chrissy]

I only use the Goofbid sniper. It's simple, always free and has never let me down.

 

In fact there are many useful tools available on Goofbid.

[tutelman]

I have used EZ Sniper for several years. I like to make a lot of below market bids, so I favor their 1% commission system. I only pay the 1% when I win, so it's always a bargain for me. Of course, since my bids are usually - but not always - well below market, I have many more unsuccessful snipes than successful ones.

 

That said, I occasionally use manual bids too; for the express purpose of nibbling. Nibbling below one's maximum can, at least, help gauge the interest (among non-snipers).

 

The sniping advantage, as others have noted, is that sniping denies others information. I can only suspect there are bidders who consider the number of (other) bidders and bids, as eBay continues to provide that info.

 

On my last successful snipe, I won a Cleto Munari pen that had not garnered any interest. I was perfectly happy to see the "0 bids" info on eBay. My last-few-seconds snipe won and I picked up this new-in-the-box pen for $50 plus $15 shipping. The snipe cost me 65 cents.

 

I checked Art Brown's website from 2008 on the Wayback Machine. The original price was $600 and the 'sale price' was $360. (They sold out.)

 

Would I have won this pen if I bid manually? Who knows? But it was worth the 65 cents to keep my interest hidden. (And I didn't have to sit by my computer 'til the end of the auction.)

 

Here's the link to the Munari transaction for those doubters: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Cleto-Munari-Book-of-Five-Pens-Limited-Edition-Fountain-Pen-/251203760711?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3a7ce93247

Edited January 4, 2013 by tutelman

[trickydicky]

I like the finance system analogy above. No-one has mentioned micro share trading, which is also a obout getting machines to do things that humans can't to the benefit of the user and the detriment of others in the system. Is it moral? Who knows..maybe a long and never-ending argument.

BTW, having been looking at a few other forum sites today for non-pen-related info, the thing that MOST impresses me about FPN is the general maturity and well-adjusted nature of pen people. I thought I would see some real fireworks under the topic of sniping but no, just a lot of polite people discussing the pros and cons. That's what's to like about FPN - it doesn't seem to descend the the level of the other forum sites. Good on you all! A new year's clap on the back I say!

[mrcharlie]

To answer the OP's question, I use esnipe when I don't bid manually, and it has not failed to get my bid in. I like its features. There was a free trial period when I signed up (I'm not sure if that is still there), so I was able to try it without paying anything.

 

I'm sorry I didn't note the username, but someone said if sniping is how it is done now they would stop using eBay, and then later that they had stopped.

 

sniping has been the best eBay strategy and has been well known and highly used basically since it (eBay) started. I can remember watching friends of mine (manually) sniping auctions back in 1999. If you are not getting the items you want recently, it is not because sniping has suddenly become popular.

 

sniping will not let anyone buy something out from under you if you bid your max bid unless they were willing to pay more than you. It will only let them win if you rely on bidding one increment higher than the current bid, and then wait to get outbid before you bid again. But that is the problem, you are using live "what you bid is what you pay" auction mentality on a "dutch" auction site. "nibbling" on eBay is always the worst strategy, no matter your budget.

 

There are a few edge cases where sniping is not the best way to go. For instance, if your max price is the starting price or less than two increments from it, you are better being the first bidder than sniping. But I can game out no scenario where you benefit* from "nibbling".

 

* You might benefit by having fun playing with the auction, but I mean benefit as either being more likely to win within your price, or winning something you would have won anyway due to you being willing to bid the most, but with the smallest possible price.

Edited January 7, 2013 by mrcharlie

[xutopia]

wrong post.. please remove..

Edited January 7, 2013 by xutopia

[sxu]

Interesting.

 

I see the sniping as a second price auction between the snipers (if anyone knows what a second price auction is), in which the best strategy for a sniper is to bid the true value he's willing to pay for the item, which creates fair competition among the snipers (I'm making this statement for the snipers only), and avoid the potential I'm gonna beat that SOB mentality in bidding.

 

Now what about those who bid earlier? I think the best strategy is still to bit the true value that one is willing to pay: if you win it in the end, good for you; if it got sniped away, the price is higher than what you are willing to pay. But bidding/nibbling war can occur, and it is difficult in that case to determine what is that true value for early bidder as it can change over time. For instance if that item got sniped away, you might wish that you'd bid higher. I don't think the sniper is doing anything wrong here, but it is difficult the early bidder to be completely rational in bidding and be consistent with the valuation of the item.

 

Also, I'm not an expert in auction theory, but to quote Wikipedia, 'economic analysis of sniping (Roth and Ockenfels, 2000) suggests that sniping is a rational gain-maximizing (i.e., price-minimizing) strategy for bidders in auctions which fulfill two criteria: 1) the end time is rigidly fixed, and 2) it is possible to gain additional information about the "true" value of the item by inspecting previous bids.'

[mrcharlie]

But bidding/nibbling war can occur, and it is difficult in that case to determine what is that true value for early bidder as it can change over time. For instance if that item got sniped away, you might wish that you'd bid higher.

If you are changing what you will bid/pay for an item based on what other bidders are doing, you are probably letting auction psychology guide you into paying more than you rationally think that item is worth. This is not good auction strategy, in financial terms.