Noodlers New Ink - American Aristocracy !

[Tas]

Someone double check my math but I think you've only got a 22% chance of getting all three colors when purchasing 3 bottles.

 

I think it depends from how many the three colours are drawn from.

 

If Goulet had three thousand bottles, one of each, the odds would be totally different than if they had just 9 bottles left, one of each.

[Tas]

 

%22.(2) to be exact :-)

 

Ooo, explain please.

[rafapa]

Agreed. Tardiff called each bottle "unique" in a video, but that is just a positive spin on a lack of consistency. The preachy names/labels are getting old as well. I'm avoiding Noodlers ink now.

maybe I misunderstood Mr. Tardiff. I thought unique from a forensic point of view but not distinguishable at naked eye.

[glorfindel]

 

Ooo, explain please.

 

Not presuming to know any math, but here's my reasoning ...

 

The total number of possible combinations for 3 bottles of 3 different inks with duplicates allowed: 3*3*3 = 27.

The number of combinations that would satisfy us (getting 3 different inks in one draw): 6.

 

So, assuming normal distribution, we have a 6 chance in 27 of getting all different inks in one draw.

 

That means one chance in 4.5. Which is 22.(2) percent.

[Tas]

 

The number of combinations that would satisfy us (getting 3 different inks in one draw): 6.

 

 

I don't get this bit.

 

[dvalliere]

 

I think it depends from how many the three colours are drawn from.

 

If Goulet had three thousand bottles, one of each, the odds would be totally different than if they had just 9 bottles left, one of each.

 

Correct. I'm assuming that Goulet has an equal number of each of the 3 inks and that they are equally distributed/mixed and that they have a large quantity, rendering the above statistically moot.

 

 

I don't get this bit.

 

 

The above explanation by glorfindel is quite right. Let me explain the math another way. Whichever bottle is chosen first (A, B, or C) is good by us. The second bottle has a 2/3 chance of not being a repeat. Assuming we get a different bottle for the second one than we did for the first bottle, then we have only a 1/3 chance of getting the third bottle with the final pick. Therefore we have a 1/3 of 2/3 chance--aka 2/9, aka 22.2%.

[Cyber6]

 

Correct. I'm assuming that Goulet has an equal number of each of the 3 inks and that they are equally distributed/mixed and that they have a large quantity, rendering the above statistically moot.

 

I wouldn't assume any retailer will get equal amounts of any color. That's the whole point. The "surprise" element.

 

I wouldn't bet on any one getting equal amounts of anything.

 

 

C.

[glorfindel]

 

I don't get this bit.

 

Ah, this basically all possible combinations of unique inks.

 

ABC

ABC

BAC

BAC

CAB

CAB

[glorfindel]

Ah, this basically all possible combinations of unique inks.

 

ABC

ABC

BAC

BAC

CAB

CAB

Sorry, first time posting from phone and "autocorrect" screwed up my post. Let's use numbers this time.

 

123

132

213

231

312

321

[TSherbs]

 

I wouldn't bet on any one getting equal amounts of anything.

 

C.

 

universal truth, brother

[SNES]

maybe I misunderstood Mr. Tardiff. I thought unique from a forensic point of view but not distinguishable at naked eye.

The three different colors are quite distinguishable with the naked eye though. Goulet posted a swatch of all three.

[Barkingpig]

 

universal truth, brother

 

AND, Amen Sister!

[Ghost Plane]

AND, Amen Sister!

q

Thanks for remembering women. #girlpower

[FountainPenCowgirl]

I felt like living on the edge this weekend, so I added a bottle to my cart at Goulet. Pulled the trigger when a new pen I wanted became available this morning. All three are in my favorites range, though one would be an almost-duplicate of an existing ink in my collection. But hey, life's short.

 

Will try to remember to post a photo when I ink it up.

Edited September 6, 2016 by FountainPenCowgirl

[Ergative]

 

Not presuming to know any math, but here's my reasoning ...

 

The total number of possible combinations for 3 bottles of 3 different inks with duplicates allowed: 3*3*3 = 27.

The number of combinations that would satisfy us (getting 3 different inks in one draw): 6.

 

So, assuming normal distribution, we have a 6 chance in 27 of getting all different inks in one draw.

 

That means one chance in 4.5. Which is 22.(2) percent.

 

I assume you mean uniform distribution, rather than a normal distribution. A normal distribution means that most values selected are close to the mean value, and values farther from the mean are less likely to be selected. It's not really meaningful to talk about the "mean" bottle since ink bottles can't be averaged together, but a normal distribution would presumably have one bottle more frequently selected than the others, such that the frequent one represents the middle of the normal distribution (the high point on the bell curve) and the others represent the tails.

 

A uniform distribution means that each value is equally likely to be selected. That applies nicely to our case, where we assume that each bottle is as likely as each other to be selected at random.

 

Otherwise your math is spot-on!

[white_lotus]

According to the Goulet web site entry for the ink, they say a one in three chance which would indicate a uniform distribution, and that would mean an equal number of each type, at least in the beginning before any ink was sold.

 

Kind of moot now however, as they are sold out. Doesn't appear at any other American source. Not sure whether there will be any more. Glad I got one!

[Tas]

 

I assume you mean uniform distribution, rather than a normal distribution. A normal distribution means that most values selected are close to the mean value, and values farther from the mean are less likely to be selected. It's not really meaningful to talk about the "mean" bottle since ink bottles can't be averaged together, but a normal distribution would presumably have one bottle more frequently selected than the others, such that the frequent one represents the middle of the normal distribution (the high point on the bell curve) and the others represent the tails.

 

A uniform distribution means that each value is equally likely to be selected. That applies nicely to our case, where we assume that each bottle is as likely as each other to be selected at random.

 

Otherwise your math is spot-on!

I love this place!

[arrScott]

Played the American Aristocracy lottery. (Or is that Noodler's Roulette?) Turns out I lose. Just inked up a pen and learned that my bottle has the dark, bruisy purple ink, the upper-left sample in the Goulet swatch. I was hoping for the bricky dark red or for the tawny port brown/red. It's an OK purple. Goes down a bit dull and brownish, but as it dries (quickly!) it seems to become a bit more saturated and settle into a plummy purple. Sort of a darker, slightly chalky Noodler's Purple Heart, or a more muted Violet Vote. Since I have a bottle of Violet Vote, I was hoping not to get the purple version, but oh well. With the Vikings season starting, I should probably have a purple-inked pen handy.

[glorfindel]

 

I assume you mean uniform distribution, rather than a normal distribution. A normal distribution means that most values selected are close to the mean value, and values farther from the mean are less likely to be selected. It's not really meaningful to talk about the "mean" bottle since ink bottles can't be averaged together, but a normal distribution would presumably have one bottle more frequently selected than the others, such that the frequent one represents the middle of the normal distribution (the high point on the bell curve) and the others represent the tails.

 

A uniform distribution means that each value is equally likely to be selected. That applies nicely to our case, where we assume that each bottle is as likely as each other to be selected at random.

 

Otherwise your math is spot-on!

 

Normal-shmormal! I said I didn't know any math! :-)

 

Seriously, though - you're completely right, I totally mis-named the distribution.

[FPRebel]

HA!!.. That is called "marketing"...

 

Something about a fool and its money... ... Right now I am glad they haven't charged more for the "surprise color" bonus...

Yes! Yes! This is it! Despite naysayers, Nathan makes great ink and sells it at a great price. He's innovative! His product and marketing and supportive videos and eccentricities all add to the fascination. I love Noodler's inks - yes, I'm new to the hobby, so what do I know? I know that I appreciate what he does - and it's all part of the free enterprise system.

Having said all of that, I'm not getting in line for the "surprise-me--color" ink - even at $12.50

I think I only like 1 of the 3; however, several of you through amazing reviews are likely to convince me that I LOVE all 3!

Edited September 7, 2016 by FPRebel